Предисловие	5
	О.А.Анисимов.  Современные и будущие изменения вечной мерзлоты: синтез наблюдений и моделирования (.pdf)	7
	Н.Г.Яковлев.  Моделирование климата океана и морского льда Северного Ледовитого океана с помощью конечно-элементной модели FEMAO: к вопросу о понимании роли различных физических процессов в формировании наблюдаемого состояния и воспроизведении их в моделях глобального климата (.pdf)	17
	А.В.Пнюшков.  Исследование изменчивости структуры циркуляции вод Баренцева моря (.pdf)	27
	Л.П.Бобылев, Е.В.Шалина, О.М.Йоханнессен, Е.В.Заболотских, С.Сандвен, О.И.Бабина.  Изменение арктического ледяного покрова по данным спутникового пассивного микроволнового зондирования (.pdf)	38
	З.М.Гудкович, В.П.Карклин, Е.Г.Ковалев, В.М.Смоляницкий, И.Е.Фролов.  Изменения морского ледяного покрова и других составляющих климатической системы в Арктике и Антарктике в связи с эволюцией полярных вихрей (.pdf)	48
	В.Ч.Хон, И.И.Мохов.  Анализ ледовых условий в Арктическом бассейне и перспективы развития Северного морского пути в XXI веке (.pdf)	59
	И.В.Бузин, А.Ф.Глазовский, Ю.П.Гудошников, А.И.Данилов, Н.Е.Дмитриев, Г.К.Зубакин, Н.В.Кубышкин, А.К.Наумов, А.В.Нестеров, А.А.Скутин, Е.А.Скутина, С.И.Шибакин.  Айсберги и ледники Баренцева моря: Исследования последних лет. Часть 1. Основные продуцирующие ледники, распространение и морфометрические особенности айсбергов  (.pdf)	66
	И.В.Бузин, А.Ф.Глазовский, Ю.П.Гудошников, А.И.Данилов, Н.Е.Дмитриев, Г.К.Зубакин, Н.В.Кубышкин, А.К.Наумов, А.В.Нестеров, А.А.Скутин, Е.А.Скутина, С.И.Шибакин.  Айсберги и ледники Баренцева моря: Исследования последних лет. Часть 2. Дрейф айсбергов по натурным данным и результатам моделирования и вероятностные оценки рисков столкновения айсберга с гидротехническим сооружением (.pdf)	81
	В.Ю.Александров, Н.Ю.Пиотровская.  Цифровая обработка РСА-изображений морских льдов спутника ENVISAT (.pdf)	90
	С.И.Кузьмина, О.М.Йоханнессен, О.Г.Анискина, Л.П.Бобылев.  Данные о приповерхностной температуре воздуха в высоких северных широтах: Создание нового сеточного набора данных о приповерхностной температуре воздуха в высоких северных широтах (.pdf)	95
	В.Ю.Третьяков, С.В.Фролов, А.Э.Клейн.  Оценка рисков плаваний с использованием измерений цифрового телевизионного комплекса (.pdf)	104
	Н.В.Горюнова, В.П.Шевченко.  Исследование аэрозолей и нерастворимых частиц в снежном покрове на дрейфующих льдах западной части Российской Арктики в августе–сентябре 2006 г. (.pdf)	112
	Л.Ф.Бадашова, Е.А.Муркина, А.В.Хохлова.  Многолетние тенденции изменения ледовитости северных полярных морей по спутниковым данным (.pdf)	118
	С.А.Огородов.  Влияние изменений климата и ледовитости арктических морей на динамику берегов Евразии (.pdf)	123
	Б.В.Иванов, А.В.Марченко, А.М.Безгрешнов.  Особенности распределения толщин снега на поверхности однолетних льдов в северо-восточной части Баренцева моря (.pdf)	129
	Н.В.Кубышкин, И.В.Бузин, А.А.Скутин.  К вопросу определения районов образования больших баренцевоморских айсбергов по распределению температуры в их толще (.pdf)	134
	А.Г.Егоров.  Многолетние особенности пространственного распределения ледовых аномалий по акватории арктических морей России в течение 1930–2000 гг. (.pdf)	143
	Д.Ю.Большиянов, А.С.Макаров, Е.А.Гусев, В.Шнайдер.  Проблемы происхождения ледового комплекса пород и существования в прошлом «Земель Санникова» в море Лаптевых  (.pdf)	151

	Preface	5
	2008
	O.A.Anisimov.  Modern and projected for the future changes of permafrost: synthesis of observations and modeling	7
	31.01.2008 O.A.ANISIMOV MODERN AND PROJECTED FOR THE FUTURE CHANGES OF PERMAFROST: SYNTHESIS OF OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING We developed the new method of permafrost modeling based on ensemble approach. The equilibrium permafrost model is used to predict the depth of seasonal thawing under the modern and projected for the mid-21st century climate. The model results are compared against observations at six plots in different biophysiographical zones. The sensitivity of permafrost model to climatic data is evaluated through comparison of brought-scale zonal permafrost characteristics obtained with four different forcing data sets. We construct the projection of seasonal thaw depth for the Russian permafrost region.
	N.G.Yakovlev.  Arctic Ocean water and sea ice climate modeling by the finite-element model FEMAO: on the problem of the understanding of the various physical processes role in the observed state formation and simulating them in a global climate models	17
	07.02.2008 N.G.YAKOVLEV ARCTIC OCEAN WATER AND SEA ICE CLIMATE MODELING BY THE FINITE-ELEMENT MODEL FEMAO: ON THE PROBLEM OF THE UNDERSTANDING OF THE VARIOUS PHYSICAL PROCESSES ROLE IN THE OBSERVED STATE FORMATION AND SIMULATING THEM IN A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS It seems now that answers on a number of the fundamental questions of the modern Arctic climatology are non-trivial, and can't be derived by the simple spatial resolution upgrade of the models. There is a need to revise the physical formulation of the problem, the mathematical formalism, the choice of a physical parameterizations and numerical methods of the solution. Such a activity is carried out for a long time in the Institute of Numerical mathematics RAS, Moscow. The global climate model of INM RAS takes part in the IPCC activity, and regional Arctic Ocean model in the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP). The main features of the low resolution version of the FEMAO model (AOMIP participant) are presented, and the ways outlined how to upgrade model from the point of view of the more complete description of the physical processes. There are processes of topographic jets generation (Neptune effect), eddy transport of a scalar, explicit tides and processes related to the dynamical interaction of the thick drifting ice in the presence of high-frequency (about the inertial period) forcing. It was shown, that Neptune effect parameterization may be abandoned in the nearest future by the improvement of the spatial resolution, but the eddy transport of a scalar will be resolved at the spatial resolution about 1 km, and there is a reason to improve the parameterization at present. The explicit tide leads to unexpectedly weak response in the sea ice state. This is associated with the problem of the description of the force, generated at the water-ice interface in a case of the thick drifting ice under the high-frequency force, like tide. The solution of the problem is non-trivial and requires the total revision of the dynamical part of the existing now coupled ice-ocean numerical dynamical models.
	A.V.Pnyushkov.  The investigations of Barents Sea water circulation structure	27
	28..02.2008 A.V.PNYUSHKOV THE INVESTIGATIONS OF BARENTS SEA WATER CIRCULATION STRUCTURE In the article the model results of water circulation for the Barents Sea are presented using climatic and quasi-synchronous distributions of hydrological parameters. An ability of anomalous circulation regime existing for certain periods has discovered, that is in disagreement with classical cyclonic character of movements. The series of prognostic experiments with model gave us an ability to estimate time interval of such anomaly existing like period from several month up to season.
	L.P.Bobylev, E.V.Shalina, O.M.Johannessen, E.V.Zabolotskikh, S.Sandven, O.I.Babina. Arctic sea ice transformation revealed from satellite passive microwave data	38
	12..02.2008 L.P.BOBYLEV, E.V.SHALINA, O.M.JOHANNESSEN, E.V.ZABOLOTSKIKH, S.SANDVEN, O.I.BABINA ARCTIC SEA ICE TRANSFORMATION REVEALED FROM SATELLITE PASSIVE MICROWAVE DATA The paper contains estimations of the sea ice transformation in the Northern Hemisphere retrieved from satellite passive microwave data from November 1978 to September 2007. It is shown that during this period the total Arctic sea ice cover has been declining with the statistically significant rate of 4,48 % per decade. The analyses of changes that have occurred over the mentioned period in the Arctic seas taken separately is carried out and quantitative estimations fulfilled. These changes in the Arctic seas can also be described as general decline, however statistically significant trends have not been derived for every month of the year.
	Z.M.Gudkovich, V.P.Kаrklin, Ye.G.Kоvаlеv, V.M.Smolyanitsky, I.E.Frolov. Changes of sea ice cover and other climatic system components in the Arctic and the Antarctic related to evolution of polar eddiesChanges of sea ice cover and other climatic system components in the Arctic and the Antarctic related to evolution of polar eddies	48
	19..02.2008 Z.M.GUDKOVICH, V.P.КАRKLIN, YE.G.КОVАLЕV, V.М.SMOLYANITSKY, I.E.FROLOV CHANGES OF SEA ICE COVER AND OTHER CLIMATIC SYSTEM COMPONENTS IN THE ARCTIC AND THE ANTARCTIC RELATED TO EVOLUTION OF POLAR EDDIES Special features of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover climatic fluctuations, as well as other components of the Earth climatic system, are explained by changes in polar whirlwinds with which zonal streams in atmosphere of the moderate and high latitudes are connected. During the warm climatic epochs of different scales deepening of the polar whirlwinds and amplification of zone streams are observed with opposite changes during the cold epochs. At strengthening of zonal air streams during the winter period the greatest rise in air temperature is observed for areas where anticyclones are positioned at average. In the areas subject to the influence of baric depressions, diminishing of warming effect and even decrease in temperature are observed. Such changes have similar character both in northern and southern hemispheres, however they are opposite on a sign: at strengthening of zonal air streams in northern hemisphere they weaken in southern and on the contrary. The opposition of climatic anomalies is shown both in air temperature and in ice extent. The possible reasons of noted changes in the state of polar whirlwinds are fluctuations of solar activity which influence «is focused» in an atmosphere of high latitudes. Interhemispheric opposition of climatic changes may be explained by the phenomenon of “Sun dissymmetry”. The opinion of some climatologists on the main role of greenhouse gases accumulation in climate warming is denied by inadequacy of climatic models which do not reflect the important natural special features of atmosphere circulation.
	V.Ch.Khon, I.I.Mokhov. Analysis of sea ice conditions in the Arctic basin and perspectives of the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century	59
	08.02.2008 V.CH.KHON, I.I.MOKHOV ANALYSIS OF SEA ICE CONDITIONS IN THE ARCTIC BASIN AND PERSPECTIVES OF THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE IN THE 21ST CENTURY Current and expected climatic changes in the Arctic basin, including the characteristics of the ice cover affecting the navigation duration on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) were estimated. The ability of modern climate models to reproduce the average duration of ice season, and its change for the past decades was evaluated. The multi-model averaged values of the ice season duration for the present period are in a good agreement with observations. Some model underestimations of the ice season changes are noted in the eastern Arctic for the present period. The duration of the navigation season on the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century was estimated for the ensemble of climate models with moderate anthropogenic scenario SRES-A1B.
	I.V.Buzin, A.F.Glazovsky, Yu.P.Gudoshikov, A.I.Danilov, N.Е.Dmitriev, G.K.Zubakin, N.V.Kubyshkin, A.K.Naumov, A.V.Nesterov, А.А.Skutin, E.A.Skutina, S.I.Shibakin. Icebergs and glaciers of the Barents Sea. Results of the most recent research. Part 1. Main producing glaciers, their propagation and morphometric properties	66
	19.02.2008 I.V.BUZIN, A.F.GLAZOVSKY, YU.P.GUDOSHIKOV, A.I.DANILOV, N.Е.DMITRIEV, G.K.ZUBAKIN, N.V.KUBYSHKIN, A.K.NAUMOV, A.V.NESTEROV, А.А.SKUTIN, E.A.SKUTINA, S.I.SHIBAKIN ICEBERGS AND GLACIERS OF THE BARENTS SEA. RESULTS OF THE MOST RECENT RESEARCH. PART 1. MAIN PRODUCING GLACIERS, THEIR PROPAGATION AND MORPHOMETRIC PROPERTIES Icebergs are produced by the outlet glaciers; these environmental elements represent the greatest danger for navigation, operation of the engineering constructions and service lines situated in the shelf zone of the Arctic and the subarctic seas. Apart from that, development of natural sources is extremely risky considering safety of mineral sources extraction at the continental shelf and transportation operations as well as minimization of damage that the possible collision of icebergs and marine structures can bring about in the environment. Studies of icebergs in the Barents Sea that AARI has performed last decade are based on analysis of archived records on icebergs detected through 1891–1991; they used as well, data obtained in the course of specialized observations in expeditions of 1992 and 2003–2007. Due to the large scope of material the study was divided into two parts. The first characterizes glaciers, propagation and morphometry of icebergs. The second is devoted to the dynamics of icebergs assessed by filed data and model calculations; estimates of probability of the icebergs appearance in the SGCF region and their collision with a platform. It considers the AARI experience in methods of the active icebergs management as well. Article of N.V. Kubyshkin on the physical and mechanical properties of icebergs and glaciers included in the present volume is close to this study.
	I.V.Buzin, A.F.Glazovsky, Yu.P.Gudoshikov, A.I.Danilov, N.Е.Dmitriev, G.K.Zubakin, N.V.Kubyshkin, A.K.Naumov, A.V.Nesterov, А.А.Skutin, E.A.Skutina, S.I.Shibakin. Icebergs and glaciers of the Barents Sea: researches of the recent years. Part 2. Drift of icebergs according to the field data and results of modeling; probabilistic estimates of risks of the iceberg and hydrotechnical structure collision	81
	19.02.2008 I.V.BUZIN, A.F.GLAZOVSKY, YU.P.GUDOSHIKOV, A.I.DANILOV, N.Е.DMITRIEV, G.K.ZUBAKIN, N.V.KUBYSHKIN, A.K.NAUMOV, A.V.NESTEROV, А.А.SKUTIN, E.A.SKUTINA, S.I.SHIBAKIN ICEBERGS AND GLACIERS OF THE BARENTS SEA: RESEARCHES OF THE RECENT YEARS. PART 2. DRIFT OF ICEBERGS ACCORDING TO THE FIELD DATA AND RESULTS OF MODELING; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATES OF RISKS OF THE ICEBERG AND HYDROTECHNICAL STRUCTURE COLLISION This study continues the article «Icebergs and glaciers of the Barents Sea: researches of the recent years. Part 1. Main producing glaciers, propagation and morphometric characteristics of icebergs» which is included in the present volume and devoted to the icebergs motion, estimates of their appearance in the SGCF region and risks of collision with hydrotechnical structures. Besides, the study describes AARI experience in methods of the active icebergs management.
	V.Y.Alexandrov, N.Y.Piotrovskaya. Digital processing of ENVISAT SAR Images of the Sea Ice	90
	08.02.2008 V.Y.ALEXANDROV, N.Y.PIOTROVSKAYA DIGITAL PROCESSING OF ENVISAT SAR IMAGES OF THE SEA ICE The backscatter coefficients for major sea ice types at HH-polarization and 23° incidence angle, as well as angular dependencies of backscatter for young, first-year and multiyear ice types are derived from calibrated ENVISAT ASAR WS images. Elaborated methodology of backscatter recalculation to the predetermined incidence angle allows obtaining range independent contrast for the same ice types, as it is shown in an example of corrected ENVISAT ASAR WS image.
	S.I.Kuzmina, O.M.Johannessen, O.G.Aniskina, L.P.Bobylev. High northern latitude surface air temperature: Creation of a new gridded dataset on high northern latitud surface air temperature	95
	05.02.2008 S.I.KUZMINA, O.M.JOHANNESSEN, O.G.ANISKINA, L.P.BOBYLEV HIGH NORTHERN LATITUDE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE: CREATION OF A NEW GRIDDED DATASET ON HIGH NORTHERN LATITUDE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the high northern latitudes is dependent of constraining uncertainties and resolving apparent discrepancies in observational datasets. A new gridded surface air temperature (SAT) dataset for the region north of 40° N has been created for the period 1900–2000 using Objective Analysis (OA) methods. The dataset uses all available data from land meteorological stations, ARGOS buoys, drifting stations, and patrol ships. The results obtained by the OA are compared with other gridded SAT data already in use. The advantage of the new data set is its enhanced spatial coverage in high northern latitudes, due to the ability of OA to optimize the data when the information is scarce. Our results indicate that for the polar region, the magnitude of SAT trend errors caused by incomplete spatial data coverage can be in the order of half a degree per hundred years.
	V.Yu.Tretyakov, S.V.Frolov, A.E.Klein. Navigation risk assessment with use of digital television complex measurements	104
	05.02.2008 V.YU.TRETYAKOV, S.V.FROLOV, A.E.KLEIN NAVIGATION RISK ASSESSMENT WITH USE OF DIGITAL TELEVISION COMPLEX MEASUREMENTS The methodology of navigation risk assessment by means of computer statistical imitation of accidental events by Monte Carlo method is considered in the article. The list of the model parameters is presented. One of the main model parameters is statistical distribution of ice cover thickness. Description of the worked out computer television digital complex and software for ice cover thickness measurement is presented.
	N.V.Goryunova, V.P.Shevchenko. Study of aerosols and particulate matter in snow on drifting ice in the western part of the Russian Arctic in August–September 2006	112
	08.04.2008 N.V.GORYUNOVA, V.P.SHEVCHENKO STUDY OF AEROSOLS AND PARTICULATE MATTER IN SNOW ON DRIFTING ICE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC IN AUGUST–SEPTEMBER 2006 Article contains results of studies of elemental composition of the aerosol samples using modern methods of analyses. Samples were collected in the Barents, Kara and Laptev Sea during the cruise of i/b «Kapitan Dranitsyn» in August – September 2006. Results of analysis of particulate matter in snow cover in the Laptev Sea are presented also. Conclusions about origin of particulate matter are made.
	L.F.Badashova, E.A.Murkina, A.V.Khokhlova. Long-term trends of ice cover variations for north polar seas on the satellite data	118
	01.02.2008 L.F.BADASHOVA, E.A.MURKINA, A.V.KHOKHLOVA LONG-TERM TRENDS OF ICE COVER VARIATIONS FOR NORTH POLAR SEAS ON THE SATELLITE DATA Based on the weekly satellite data set, this work studies analysis of long-term ice cover variations for north polar seas. Five different methods were used for multi-year time series trend analysis. The quantitative estimates of area changes of sea ice were obtained for every sea. The total decrease of sea ice extent took place for the period. Seas with maximal decrease of sea ice cover were detected. Used methods were compared.
	S.A.Ogorodov. Effects of Changing Climate and Sea Ice Extent on Eurasian Arctic Coastal Dynamics	123
	01.02.2008 S.A.OGORODOV EFFECTS OF CHANGING CLIMATE AND SEA ICE EXTENT ON EURASIAN ARCTIC COASTAL DYNAMICS About half of the Eurasian Arctic coastline consists of ice-rich deposits. The dynamic response of this coastal type is forced mainly by thermal and wave-energy mechanisms. The role of the thermal factor increases with ground ice content. Low ice content makes the wave-energy factor more significant. We present a comparison of the changing influence that wave energy and temperature regimes can exert on coastal dynamics for two types of coasts. The first type is represented by barriers and spits, which are expressed by sandy deposits with low ice content. For such coasts, a clear dependence between the seasonal wave energy magnitude directed landward and the coastal retreat rate was found. The second type represents the typical, thermo-erosion bluff coast composed of sandy and clayey deposits with medium ice content. The dynamic regime of this type of coast is determined by both thermal and wave-energy factors.
	B.V.Ivanov, A.V.Marchenko, A.M.Bezgreshnov. The features of snow thickness distribution of on a surface of one-year ice in a northeast part of the sea Barents Sea	129
	31.01.2008 B.V.IVANOV, A.V.MARCHENKO, A.M.BEZGRESHNOV THE FEATURES OF SNOW THICKNESS DISTRIBUTION OF ON A SURFACE OF ONE-YEAR ICE IN A NORTHEAST PART OF THE SEA BARENTS SEA The results of the field researches carry out in a northeast part of the sea Barents Sea in April, 2005, from board of r/v «Michael Somov» are submitted in article. The measurements of snow and ice thickness were carried out on thin and middle one-year ice, both on level sites, and near of hummocks. The measurements of morphometric characteristics of a snow and ice were carried out on two special polygons: across snowdrift form, near of ridge and on rather level site of ice. On the basis of the measurements data the relationship between snow and ice thickness was analyzed in according to requirements, produced to engineering researches.
	N.V.Kubyshkin, I.V.Buzin, A.A.Skutin. On determination of formation area of the big icebergs in the Barents Sea – temperature distribution analysis	134
	09.02.2008 N.V.KUBYSHKIN, I.V.BUZIN, A.A.SKUTIN ON DETERMINATION OF FORMATION AREA OF THE BIG ICEBERGS IN THE BARENTS SEA – TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS On the basis of analysis of published materials and field data on temperature distribution in icebergs and iceberg-producing glaciers of Franz-Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya obtained by AARI in 2003, 2005, the most possible areas of formation of some large iceberg are determined. In particular, the conclusion that the big tabular iceberg, found at the Shtokman gas-condensate field in 2003 was most likely formed at one of the outlet glaciers of Franz-Josef Land is made. Earlier, the glaciers of Novaya Zemlya were pointed out as the source of this iceberg.
	A.G.Egorov. Long-term features of the spatial distribution of the ice anomalies in the Russian Arctic seas during the period 1930–2000	143
	09.02.2008 A.G.EGOROV LONG-TERM FEATURES OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE ICE ANOMALIES IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC SEAS DURING THE PERIOD 1930–2000 The peculiarities of the combination of the positive and negative ice cover extent anomalies in the Russian Arctic seas are studied. Analysis of the large-scale distribution of the ice anomalies stimulates the evolution of the long-term variability of the ice conditions. Interchange of ice opposition and ice uniformity periods allows forecasting the regular cyclic increase of the ice cover extent in the period of 2010–2030.
	D.Yu.Bolshiyanov, A.S.Makarov, E.A.Gusev, W.Schneider. Problems of Ice Complex origination and former «Sannikov's Lands» existence in the Laptev Sea	151
	28.02.2008 BOLSHIYANOV D.YU, MAKAROV A.S., GUSEV E.A., SCHNEIDER W. PROBLEMS OF ICE COMPLEX ORIGINATION AND FORMER «SANNIKOV'S LANDS» EXISTENCE IN THE LAPTEV SEA New data of Laptev Sea cost marine terraces and deposits are described. Ice Complex and underlying sands formation was connected with sea level fluctuations. Geological, hydrographical and geophysical data confirm the Gakkel's conclusion about former existence of vast massives of Land in the Laptev Sea, which are destroying actively in modern time. «Sannikov's Lands» existed really and theirs disappearance was connected with Ice Complex degradation.